UPDATED :
Breaking news :
UPDATED ! No official link-back can be found to the Japan fallout forecast map. (The graphic has been removed, but it can be seen by clicking on the preceding link.) Further research indicates that the graphic was a hoax. Nevertheless, the direction indicated on the map is consistent with the Pacific Ocean jet stream and with a forecast by an Austrian meteorological model. There is no way to confirm the rad level predictions. (A ''rad'' is a measured unit of absorbed radiation dose.) Furthermore, comments to this blog post suggest that the trade or prevailing winds, such as the westerlies, would carry any nuclear radiation particles, not the jet stream. No contradiction, though, suggests that the direction of the map was incorrect. In fact, nuclear radiation is already being detected by the U.S. Navy down wind from the site of the nuclear power plant explosions. In the latest news report, The Daily Mail reports that the "Nuclear Regulatory Commission admits it is 'quite possible' radiation could reach the U.S."
Early on Saturday morning (New York Time), a suspicious map circulated on the Internet. The map was exposed to be a hoax, because the rad levels were unrealistic, and there was no official link-back to the map. But with several explosions at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, could nuclear meltdown occur ? And could wind currents carry dangerous levels of radioactivity ?
The suspicious map, bearing the logo of Australian Radiation Services, indicated that exposure to radiation following a likely nuclear fallout from the nuclear power plant explosion in Fukushima, Japan, could reach the West Coast of the United States within 6 to 10 days time. While the map may appear suspicious, the direction of the spread is consistent with the Pacific Ocean jet stream and/or trade or prevailing winds. And if the rad levels were wrong, has a scientist issued any realistic levels of radiation that would be spread by wind currents in the event of a nuclear meltdown at Fukushima ? Confirmation that nuclear radioactivity is now in the wind currents comes from The New York Daily News : "The U.S. 7th Fleet, positioned about 100 miles northeast of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to deliver aid to Japan's coastal region, moved its ships further away due to 'airborne radioactivity' and contamination found on its planes." Making the worst case scenario -- a nuclear meltdown -- all the more likely is the fact that employees at the Fukushima nuclear power plant have abandoned their posts and fled their responsibilities -- this comes after a third explosion at the doomed power plant.
Even as David McIntyre, a spokesman for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said, "Right now it's quite possible that there could be some radiation floating over the United States," the NRC "downplayed the threat to Americans," however. Mr McIntyre told the AFP: "We don't think that it would be particularly harmful... even in a worst case scenario," according to The Daily Mail.
Meanwhile, here is a YouTube video of the first nuclear power plant explosion at Fukushima from a Japanese news program. It shows what could be white smoke and/or steam rising from the building as a result of the nuclear power plant explosion. Video Credit : ProducerMatthew.
Separately, supplemental reports have come in that the Japanese government has imposed an evacuation area spreading 20 kilometers around the nuclear power plant in Fukushima. Prior to the explosion, energy scientists had been managing the nuclear emergency at the power plant by releasing steam, to relieve pressure in the cooling system. One risk from releasing steam is that critical water in the cooling system is lost ; if too much water is lost, there is a depletion in the cooling system, thereby leading to a risk of exposing the core, leading, in turn, to a nuclear meltdown.
Apparently, radiation would be carried across the Pacific Ocean by the wind currents, such as the jet stream. Scientists have not yet determined the amount of radiation that has been released by the nuclear power plant explosion. So far, the only information available is coming from nations nearer to Japan. United States government officials have yet to make any risk assessments in connection with radiation exposure.
Fukushima is approximately 150 miles north from Tokyo. Residents within the immediate Fukushima radius are being told to stay indoors, turn off air conditioners, and avoid drinking tap water. It is not yet known what nuclear emergency advisories are being made, or preparations being taken, at other large large cities in Japan. Later on Saturday, however, there was news that the company that operates the power plant planned to use sea water to cool down the reactor's core, and it was also reported that authorities were planning for the distribution of Iodine to residents. (Iodine can be taken to prevent the absorption of radiation by the thyroid, reported MSNBC.)
Related updates :
[Updated Monday, 14 March 2011 9:20 am EDT] : Whereas the original photograph that circulated last weekend was not an official map, the forecast direction where wind currents would carry airborne radioactivity is generally consistent with the jet stream and the westerly wind currents over the Pacific Ocean. Tom Costello, an NBC News correspondent for The Today Show, predicted that nuclear radiation would be carried by wind currents over the Pacific Ocean, but would ''dissipate'' over the ocean, presumably before any radioactivity would reach the U.S. West Coast. No scientific evidence was given to support that radioactivity would completely dissipate, however.
